AVIAN INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE BASED ON THE NORTH AMERICAN BREEDING BIRD SURVEY
As global climate changes, it is generally expected that ecological systems will respond and adapt. Appropriate indicators of ecological responses can be used to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and potentially to project the consequences of climate change. An ideal indicator should be based on predicted ecological responses to climate change, incorporate data across a large geographic extent and a wide range of climatic conditions, be sensitive to environmental change, and be practical and affordable. For terrestrial animals, predicted ecological responses include an increase in the range of species, a pole-ward movement in the range centroids of species, and an increase in local colonization rates. However, monitoring data typically confound the spatio-temporal processes of interest with an imperfect observation process that includes detection probabilities <1 and spatial dependence among observations. Furthermore, the impact of imperfect observation on monitoring data is likely to differ towards range margins, potentially biasing indicators. Here we present indicators of climate change developed from the North American Breeding Bird Survey using new multi-season occupancy models that account for imperfect detection and spatial dependency among observations. We evaluate three indicators of climate change — range size, centroid position, and colonization rates — for example species. We conclude with a discussion of potential uses of these indicators, as well as other ecological parameters that might be useful as indicators of climate change.
Clement, M. J., U.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, USA, firstname.lastname@example.org
Nichols, J. D., U.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, USA, email@example.com
Pardieck, K. L., U.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, USA, firstname.lastname@example.org
Location: Emerald Mountain - Bible Point
Presentation is given by student: No